Wednesday, August 6, 2014

MEMO: China Internal Security Thresholds


MEMORANDUM: China Internal Security Thresholds
 

Greater Context: 

China's internal security spending eclipses its defense budget.  

Many violent local uprisings (VLU) occur annually, CCP has to date effectively contained.  

Pollution is raising the pressure of public unrest, people are being poisoned by the air they breathe.
 

Will China's masses pose an existential threat to the CCP through a violent uprising? 

Possible Scenarios: 

  1. VLU stays the same in terms of frequency and size, small riots throughout the country that are quickly contained by the PLA.
  2. VLU decrease, trend toward pacification.
  3. A single VLU spreads faster than the PLA is able to contain it, unknown consequences.
  4. Multiple VLU are coordinated into a national anti-CCP campaign. 

Likelihood of Various Scenarios: 

1),2) Assess the sparks that ignite VLU. Often they result from corruption of local magistrates, violent local law enforcement. Ask: Are the sparks becoming less frequent, severe? 

  1. Is the pressure building up such that one of these VLU would spread faster than the PLA is able to contain it?
  2. Who would coordinate the VLU into a national campaign? So far the VLU seem spontaneous and aimless. Internet is method to coordinate, but it is closely monitored by the PLA.  

Summary: 

The impetus for a VLU spreading faster than the PLA is able to contain it would be how many people are dying from pollution.  

Need to study methods of PLA riot control.  

Need to study the frequency, severity of the sparks.

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