Friday, August 15, 2014

MEMO: Scenarios Re Russian Convoy in Ukraine


MEMO: Scenarios Re Russian Convoy in Ukraine

Purpose of the Convoy:

Raise the Temperature

Possible Scenarios:

-> Convoy will stay the same

Seems they can stay as long as they like, might be there a while.

-> Convoy will leave

Convoy could stay for a very long time, but Putin might decide he wants to lower the temperature at which point he'd recall it.

-> Convoy is precursor to full scale invasion of Ukraine

Possible but unlikely, Putin doesn't have the resources for full scale invasion.

-> Putin doesn't even know what he'll do next re the convoy, he's waiting to judge the international reaction and he'll make his next move accordingly.

My favorite option.

Summary:

Convoy has already served the purpose of the convoy, he has raised the temperature and has only paid the price of gas to drive into Ukraine. Nobody has died and everyone is freaking out trying to figure out what is going on.

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