Sunday, September 28, 2014

"Funny Story About Anders Aslund re Moldova" - #KhodorkovskyMole

PLEASE FORWARD UP THE LINE.........PLEASE FORWARD UP THE LINE...


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Donna Welles <donnawelles@gmail.com>
Date: 2014-09-28 6:20 GMT-04:00
Subject: Funny Story about Anders Aslund re Moldova
To: 



Was thinking about when the Ukrainian president came here, asking for weapons and saying Putin was going to invade Moldova.....
This summer I saw Anders Aslund speak and he portrayed Moldova as a good place to invest money...
Thought to myself, "wow, my information on that is dated..."

Saturday, September 27, 2014

MEMO: Master Strategy - Increase US Exports re China


Date: September 27, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Master Strategy - Increase US Exports re China



Current Status: 

US lacks a mechanism to connect US vendors (USVs) to Global Procurement Opportunities (GPOs)

China mobilized and ready to strike w SOEs


China's SOEs vs USVs compete for K:

China's SOEs can undercut USVs

USV better quality, environmentally conscious, more inclined to train local population


Tools Needed - Connect USVs to GPOs: 

Searchable Database:

Complete list - companies registered in the US who are in good standing with USG and who have had 50 employees or more for the past 5 years;  Database categorized by industry, increasing detail re services/products offered

Team of Intel Analysts to scour for GPOs


Process - Connecting USVs to GPOs 

Intel analysts email USV when find a GPO

Thursday, September 25, 2014

MEMO: What would happen if US withdrew its 30K troops from South Korea? #MattMiller


September 25, 2014

MEMORANDUM: What would happen if US withdrew its 30,000 troops from South Korea?


#MattMiller


Will North Korea invade by land? 

Unlikely as there are millions of land mines along the DMZ.

Will North Korea invade by sea? 

Unlikely but possible.

Will China invade by sea? 

Possible.

What will happen to South Korea no matter if they are invaded or not? 

South Korea will become more like North Korea. Currently SK and NK occupy separate ends of the global connectivity spectrum. If US troops withdraw, the per capita SK ipad figure will be the first to suffer, then other quality of life indicators. South Korea is not Chinese and PRC will treat them as a subhuman state as they do ASEAN.

What is the benefit to global security for the 30,000 US troops to remain in SK? 

It provides a tangible limit to what the PRC can do in that part of the world.

What would I rather those 30,000 troops be doing? 

Walking around ASEAN, asking what they are hearing about PRC covert warfare being waged against ASEAN as well as the US and our allies.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Saudis - Epicenter of the Arab World, Parallel to Imperial China and Moscow's Prince


Date: September 24, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Saudis - Epicenter of the Arab World, Parallel Imperial China and Moscow's Prince


What is the structure of the Arab world? 

Saudi royal family is well respected by all, they are a royal family among royal families in the Arab world. US allies because Saudis see it as a service they provide to the Arab world to mediate between Arabs and the West. Modern times this means they set the world's oil prices. Also, they have the worldliness and the sophistication to not degrade their heritage through deception and coercion. They are legitimately our allies.

Like imperial China, the Arab world consists of a spiral outward from the Saudi family epicenter, other royal families and modern authoritarian regimes look to the Saudis for guidance.

Why doesn't a caucus work in Iraq? 

Arab world is an organized group of principalities similar to what existed in ancient Russia. Each of these principalities has a prince. The princes organize themselves and they look to a prince among princes. Moscow emerged in ancient Russia because Moscow's prince was the first to deny the Mongols their tribute. Saudi family parallels the ancient Muscovite prince, Ivan III or Ivan the Great.

So, to ask one town in Iraq to send 8 representatives and another to send 4, the Iraqis would view that as weak and inefficient.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

MEMO: Ideal Role for Mikhail Khodorkovsky - Reverse Trend of Capital Flight


September 23, 2014

MEMORANDUM: What is the ideal role for Mikhail Khodorkovsky?



What are MK's motivations re the Pro Europe Russia campaign?

Wants to make lots of money, to maintain connections and leverage in Russia while cultivating a legitimate persona in the west. A Russian pro-Europe political entity does this. And he isn't bound to this by law, he can also actively work against this behind closed doors. Major thing is that it allows him to appear legitimate to the West, we'll let him move in next door and pretend he didn't do what he did in the 1990s.


Trend MK reversed in the 2000's: 

Rest of oligarchs fighting over shares of floundering companies, MK began to build the companies he owned and paying taxes on them.

Ideal Role for MK - reverse trend of capital flight: 

Now the destructive trend in Russia is capital flight. Ideally, MK would encourage wealthy Russians to invest in Russia rather than to buy expensive Western real estate/sports teams. Build Russia rather than hide their wealth in the West…


We want Russia to be built and we don't want them to sell their forests to the Chinese.

Monday, September 22, 2014

MEMO: What are Iran and the Saudis talking about?


September 22, 2014

MEMORANDUM: What are Iran and the Saudis talking about?


Economics: 

Saudis control the world's oil prices. Iran has lots of natural resources, including natural gas. Some of the major oil producing Arab countries are starting to import natural gas.

Security: 

Lots of Saudi fighters going to Syria to fight, this affects Iran.

Diplomacy: 

Saudis are US allies, Iran in nuclear talks mediated by US right now.

Friday, September 19, 2014

MEMO: Likelihood that Putin will attack Georgia or Moldova


Date: September 19, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Likelihood that Putin will attack Georgia or Moldova as the Ukrainian President has suggested 




What is the likelihood that Putin will attack Georgia or Moldova as the Ukrainian president has suggested? 

Seems unlikely, but possible..

Why? 

Putin is looking to create on ongoing external threat that generates positive public opinion, allows for the efficient use of resources, and ends in victory.

Moldova 

Moldova would not be able to defend itself, but would be strategically difficult to maintain positive control given its location.

Georgia 

Borders Russia but Georgians are scary, Stalin was from Georgia. Russians see Georgia as a briar patch. Georgian language seems Asian to Russians, long letter combinations would bring back bad memories of the Mongols.


Neither country is attacking Russia right now, that seems important to Russian people.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

MEMO: PRC-ROK-DPRK Strategic Triangle - #MattMiller

Date: September 14, 2014


MEMORANDUM: PRC - ROK - DPRK Strategic Triangle 

#MattMiller


PRC - ROK 

Tons of trade.

ROK cannot say "no" to reasonable requests

ROK would prefer to stay neutral, pro West

Noticeable lack of territorial disputes


PRC - DPRK 

PRC manipulates DPRK on multiple levels, gives them enough technology to secure allegiance but not enough to be threatening or independent


ROK - DPRK 

Mine Field and US marines in between them

MEMO: What is going on re North Korea & #MattMiller


Date: September 14, 2014

MEMORANDUM: What is going on re North Korea & #MattMiller

US has zero intel on where they are being held so rescue attempt impossible

China controls NK decision making, so not just dealing with NK leadership, they are going to adhere to Beijing's guidance. This is important because we can't bribe them or threaten them with anything better or worse than the Chinese will do to them.

China can help us but they won't because then they would have to admit they are controlling NK.

US concerned, but should not be, re NK retaliating against SK.

South Korea won't help because they pretend to be helpless but in real life are trading all sorts of secrets to the Chinese.

Friday, September 12, 2014

MEMO: Pictorial Representation of Global #ISIS Strategy


Date: September 12, 2014 

MEMORANDUM: Pictorial Representation of Global #ISIS Strategy

Images: 

Western Coalition

Eastern Coalition

Territory: 

Syria

Iraq

Logistics: 

Drones - USA

Ground Troops - Iraq, Kurds

Intel -

Drawing and Photo by Donna Welles
9/12/14

MEMO: Math Model - Relative Media Coverage re NSA Surveillance & CIA Torture Programs


Date: September 12, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Math Model - Relative Media Coverage re NSA Surveillance & CIA Torture Programs


x axis: time

y axis: degree of media coverage

Both asymptotes: 

NSA approaches ambient noise level as surveillance unlikely to stop completely

CIA approaches zero as torture programs purported to have stopped completely

Drawing and Photo by Donna Welles

x axis time, y axis degree of media coverage
NSA line approaches ambient noise
CIA line approaches zero

Modern American Memes

Date: September 12, 2014

Modern American Memes



What is a meme? 

A group of clichés working together as a formidable infrastructure, observed by a specific group of people.



Conservative Meme 

Government is stupid

Government is corrupt

Government takes our guns

Government takes our money



Liberal Meme 

Government should stay out of our lives

Abortion is always OK

Gay sex is always OK

Thursday, September 11, 2014

MEMO: Relating Internet Freedom and Economic Efficiency


Date: September 11, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Relating Internet Freedom and Economic Efficiency



Positive correlation between internet freedom and economic efficiency.

Exists a spectrum of internet freedom, as move toward authoritarian end the economy gets less efficient.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

MEMO: Identifying and Classifying a Sociopath


Date: September 10, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Identifying and Classifying a Sociopath



What is a sociopath? 

Craves destruction, looks for ways to destroy people, projects, systems, themselves…

(Normal people feel more comfortable around health and constructive behavior…)

Early Warning Signs: 

Lies, negative words

Craves being in the mix of things

Discernible Pattern: 

When people around them are happy, making progress they feel uncomfortable and actively try to destroy, reverse said progress.

Spectrums within sociopaths: 

Threshold of how much destruction they crave- 

Must rape/kill women or merely desires to make people feel bad about themselves?

Willingness to do things to satisfy cravings- 

Actively hunt people to rape/murder or avoid activity that could lead to incarceration?

Monday, September 8, 2014

MEMO: What is going on re Putin capture Estonian spy in Estonia?


Date: September 8, 2014

MEMORANDUM: What is going on re Putin capture Estonian spy in Estonia? 

Overview: 

Putin is trying different tactics in his efforts to establish a long term external threat.

Why now? 

Turning point in the Ukraine crisis, Russians seem to not want to go to war with Ukraine. Also, might be coordinating with Chinese as to hurt NATO when we're making progress re ISIS.

What can we expect in the future?

So far Putin has been very efficient with his resources. Goal is not to gain territory necessarily, but to establish an ongoing external threat. Ukrainians were not attacking Russia, but Russians are inherently fearful of spies. Putin grabbed a real spy on the Estonian side of the border.

Sunday, September 7, 2014

MEMO: Current China/North Korea Dynamic - #MattMiller

#MattMiller


Date: September 7, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Current China/North Korea Dynamic 

Overview: 

Big brother little brother relationship, China boosts NK's ego all the while manipulating them on multiple levels.

China's Message to North Korea: 

You're so cool, you're so powerful, we take you seriously!!!

We will give you technology!!!

Note: China does not berate NK publicly and they are markedly not helpful re NK's nuclear program…. 

China's Master Strategy: 

Give NK just enough technology - crappy surveillance drones, some conventional weapons, etc. - so as to secure NK allegiance.

China could conceivably count on NK military if it were to launch a ground offensive.

China not going to give too much technology, nuclear weapons to NK lest NK become powerful enough to say "No" to China or even turn their weapons on the mainland.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

MEMO: Math Model of US Responsibility in Iraq Over Time #ISIS

Date: September 4, 2014


MEMORANDUM: What is the current level of responsibility the United States has in Iraq? 

See Below:

X axis: time re the March 2003 invasion

Y axis: degree of responsibility which fades over time....eventually approaching zero

#ISIS




Drawing and photo by Donna Welles
September 4, 2014

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

MEMO: Red Army vs Modern Russian Conventional Forces

Date: September 2, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Red Army vs Modern Russian Conventional Forces 


Are we scared of Putin? 

We're scared of the Red Army.


Personnel: 

Red Army soldiers would be subject to grave consequences re Communist party procedures.

Modern Russians just want to serve their brief period of conscription and get back home to make money and start their lives.


Training and equipment: 

Comparable


Which one is scarier? 

Red Army because the west would never be able to match those casualties.

Modern Russian leaders are subject to public opinion restrictions on loss of life.

MEMO: Will Putin Take Kiev?

Date: September 2, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Will Putin take Kiev? 


Putin's current thinking: 

Put more and more troops in Ukraine so if he decides to take Kiev, the battle will be easier and easier.

When would Putin try to take Kiev if that is his plan?

When he is sure that:

- Russians would support this, would not create internal confusion

- Enough Russian troops in position so as to make the battle not an embarrassment

But, even if both of those 2 are present, that doesn't mean he'll attack. His goal is to create an ongoing external threat. 

Prognosis: 

Decide very soon whether to cede Ukraine or fight for it.

Could Ukraine be saved? 

If he keeps sending convoys, very soon the answer is no. But it could be the case that there aren't currently enough troops in Ukraine to ensure a Russian victory. If NATO makes an honest effort to disable convoys and discourage more from entering, Ukraine can be saved. But I think a month from now, too many trucks and it will be very hard to get that territory back. Look at how fast the convoys have been entering so you can graph how many troops have come how fast.

My math model of - How many Russian convoys entering Ukraine constitutes an invasion post from Aug 22.
X axis is # convoys and Y axis is degree of invasion. X trends toward infinite convoys but at some point the y axis will represent something that is undeniably an invasion. 

Monday, September 1, 2014

Alternate Interpretation of Robert Frost Poem


Alternate Interpretation of Robert Frost Poem 

The woods are lovely, dark, and deep 
But I have promises to keep 
And miles to go before I sleep 
And miles to go before I sleep 

Conclusion: 

Going through the woods in the dark and the deep and the lovely are keeping the promises, and this is life's journey and it's a life of adventure and joy.