Date: September 19, 2014
MEMORANDUM: Likelihood that Putin will attack Georgia or Moldova as the Ukrainian President has suggested
What is the likelihood that Putin will attack Georgia or Moldova as the Ukrainian president has suggested?
Seems unlikely, but possible..
Putin is looking to create on ongoing external threat that generates positive public opinion, allows for the efficient use of resources, and ends in victory.
Moldova would not be able to defend itself, but would be strategically difficult to maintain positive control given its location.
Borders Russia but Georgians are scary, Stalin was from Georgia. Russians see Georgia as a briar patch. Georgian language seems Asian to Russians, long letter combinations would bring back bad memories of the Mongols.
Neither country is attacking Russia right now, that seems important to Russian people.