Friday, September 19, 2014

MEMO: Likelihood that Putin will attack Georgia or Moldova


Date: September 19, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Likelihood that Putin will attack Georgia or Moldova as the Ukrainian President has suggested 




What is the likelihood that Putin will attack Georgia or Moldova as the Ukrainian president has suggested? 

Seems unlikely, but possible..

Why? 

Putin is looking to create on ongoing external threat that generates positive public opinion, allows for the efficient use of resources, and ends in victory.

Moldova 

Moldova would not be able to defend itself, but would be strategically difficult to maintain positive control given its location.

Georgia 

Borders Russia but Georgians are scary, Stalin was from Georgia. Russians see Georgia as a briar patch. Georgian language seems Asian to Russians, long letter combinations would bring back bad memories of the Mongols.


Neither country is attacking Russia right now, that seems important to Russian people.

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