September 25, 2014
MEMORANDUM: What would happen if US withdrew its 30,000 troops from South Korea?
Will North Korea invade by land?
Unlikely as there are millions of land mines along the DMZ.
Will North Korea invade by sea?
Unlikely but possible.
Will China invade by sea?
What will happen to South Korea no matter if they are invaded or not?
South Korea will become more like North Korea. Currently SK and NK occupy separate ends of the global connectivity spectrum. If US troops withdraw, the per capita SK ipad figure will be the first to suffer, then other quality of life indicators. South Korea is not Chinese and PRC will treat them as a subhuman state as they do ASEAN.
What is the benefit to global security for the 30,000 US troops to remain in SK?
It provides a tangible limit to what the PRC can do in that part of the world.
What would I rather those 30,000 troops be doing?
Walking around ASEAN, asking what they are hearing about PRC covert warfare being waged against ASEAN as well as the US and our allies.