Tuesday, September 2, 2014

MEMO: Will Putin Take Kiev?

Date: September 2, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Will Putin take Kiev? 


Putin's current thinking: 

Put more and more troops in Ukraine so if he decides to take Kiev, the battle will be easier and easier.

When would Putin try to take Kiev if that is his plan?

When he is sure that:

- Russians would support this, would not create internal confusion

- Enough Russian troops in position so as to make the battle not an embarrassment

But, even if both of those 2 are present, that doesn't mean he'll attack. His goal is to create an ongoing external threat. 

Prognosis: 

Decide very soon whether to cede Ukraine or fight for it.

Could Ukraine be saved? 

If he keeps sending convoys, very soon the answer is no. But it could be the case that there aren't currently enough troops in Ukraine to ensure a Russian victory. If NATO makes an honest effort to disable convoys and discourage more from entering, Ukraine can be saved. But I think a month from now, too many trucks and it will be very hard to get that territory back. Look at how fast the convoys have been entering so you can graph how many troops have come how fast.

My math model of - How many Russian convoys entering Ukraine constitutes an invasion post from Aug 22.
X axis is # convoys and Y axis is degree of invasion. X trends toward infinite convoys but at some point the y axis will represent something that is undeniably an invasion. 

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