Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Theory re Research Design - Werner von Braun

DAR #907509


Theory re Research Design - Werner von Braun
Date: December 30, 2014


VB sev unsuccessful V2 rocket tests, Europe mainland.

VB sev unsuccessful 2V rocket tests, West Hem.


DAR #907509

Monday, December 15, 2014

MEMO: History of Ukraine re Russian Orthodox Church


MEMORANDUM: History of Ukraine re Russian Orthodox Church
Date: Dec 15, 2014

Important re Song of Igor's Campaign.
Important re Song of Igor's Campaign.



Ancient History re Kievan Rus: 

900 AD Vikings sailed down river, founded Kiev when ditched boats. Walked North, East.

Moscow emerges re capital Russia: 

Rus exist principalities, Song of Igor's Campaign oldest Russian literature. Complains no unification. Mongols invade 13th C. 15th C Ivan III of Moscow denies Mongols tribute. Moscow easier to defend than Kiev. Ukraine means on the edge or perhaps southern blue heron.

East vs West relation re Monarch, Church: 

West looks to Rome, church separate entity. Tsar and ROC same. Even QoE looks to Archbishop of Canterbury.

20th C Ukraine History: 

Lenin gen territory Ukraine to Germans re end WWI. Stalin re famine, great.

Modern Ukraine relationship w ROC: 

Communism replaced ROC re morals, after fall USSR vacuum. Some churches held in trailers rather than tserkovs. ROC priests had been KGB. What are the Huron to do?

Konechno split re East and West pulls. Ukrainians don't want Catholicism, Anglicanism.

Ideally, ROC acts re mechanism to disseminate formal education, morals.



Important re Song of Igor's Campaign.
Important re Song of Igor's Campaign.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

MEMO: Army Airmen Europe, Naval Aviators Pacific re WWII


MEMORANDUM: Army Airmen Europe, Naval Aviators Pacific re WWII 
Date: December 10, 2014


Army Airmen, bombers in Europe

Naval Aviators, carriers in the Pacific


Army Airmen, bombers in Europe: 

Slower, bigger planes.

German anti-aircraft guns, artillery on par w Panzers, Tigers.

Longer trips.


Naval Aviators, carriers in the Pacific: 

Smaller, faster planes.

Less flight time.

Not vulnerable to most destructive Japanese weapon - Kamikaze. (Henry Allison Page III, USS Birmingham, May 1945)

Japanese anti-aircraft guns, no artillery, not fly as high, less explosive, less accurate.


Summary: 

Army airmen experience during WWII more strain re PTSD, casualties.

See 12 o'clock high w Gregory Peck

Monday, December 8, 2014

MEMO: Stephen re the Apostle Paul's Death


MEMORANDUM: Stephen re the Apostle Paul's Death
Date: December 8, 2014


What happened? 

Saul watched re henchmen stoned to death Stephen, the Martyr. Stephen before, during said his attackers knew not God power. "You have no idea what you are doing. When God finds out he'll be angry."

Later, as Saul was on his way home...Jesus appear before him and said, "Why have you killed me?" Paul was blinded, waited for help which came in form of alt disciple.

Theology: 

Likely both the Holy Spirit and God appeared to Saul, sent Jesus finally.

Stephen died because he spoke truth to power.

Why did God allow Stephen to be stoned to death?

Did God love Stephen?

Inherent Paradox: 

Assumption: This was written long ago.
Proof: God stoned Stephen. God loves Stephen.

Resolve the Paradox: 

Notions of Human free will…… #tedious

Stephen's faith was such that it seemed he didn't even mind being stoned. #Miracle

Sunday, December 7, 2014

MEMO: Modern South American re German Imperialism

.....CS CIA CIA CS.....CS CIA CIA CS.....CS CIA CIS CS.....CS CIA CIA CS.....


MEMORANDUM: Modern South America re German Imperialism
Date: Dec 7, 2014


Strategic Triangle: 

Portugal, Brazil,  Peru


Old World Actors: 

Italy,  Germany,  Russia


Relevant History re Strategic Triangle: 

Peruvian natives peaceful, build Incan paradise in mountains. Eat coca leaves re climb. Herders, other econ re mountains.

Brazilian natives vulnerable to Portuguese. Recently convert Amazon to beef prod.


Relevant History re Old World Actors: 

Bad Italians work with the Germans.

German imperialism has no navy.

Russian imperialism only has navy sometimes. Tsar means no boats, boats brought the plague.


Modern Implications: 

Russian-German economy interlinked re Sir Martin, Germany has no navy but able to project power re web transactions. Russians re capital flight, re #NewWorld sports teams. Not inherently Russian as Russia is Eurasia-based land empire re Yakutia.

German imperialism repercussions re Euro. Nazis fled to Argentina, Pinochet in Chile. No middle east = Pinochet, native peoples fire re volcanoes. Holy See South America as land of opportunity. Work w Portuguese and re Portuguese.


Research Questions???? 

Where is Spain re German imperialism #NewWorld?

How old is German imperialism?

Reminder re Pope Francis of Argentina.


.....CS CIA CIA CS.....CS CIA CIA CS.....CS CIA CIA CS.....CS CIA CIA CS.....

Saturday, December 6, 2014

MEMO: Why Russian struggle re Good Tanks?

CS CIA CIA CS.....CS CIA CIA CS.....CS CIA CIA CS.....CS CIA CIA CS.....


MEMORANDUM: Why Russians struggle re Good Tanks?
Date: December 6, 2014



When did it start? 

Nicholas II and his father, Alexander III


Why did they not industrialize when the Germans did? 

NII, AIII were fine re Russians serfs…

Also, they descend from Catherine II, the Great of Germany. Catherine was a Lutheran who converted to Orthodoxy, learned Russia. She imprisoned, executed her husband the tsar. Catherine's son, Paul, hated his mother so much he decreed that never again should a woman be allow to be the tsar. To be fair, the German (nemka) married into the Romanov family, she should have been something of a crown prince. (There is no Russian word for Crown Prince.)))))))))) Tsar means no boats.


What happened in WWII? 

Russian engineers designed elite tanks.

Manufacturing sector, materials lacking even though Stalin spent the 1930's modernizing.


Today….. 

Oligarchs need to ensure Russian soldiers have elite tanks. Engineers can, have designed them but still lacking in manufacturing capacity, raw materials. There is no excuse for this, the wealth of the Russian forest providse.

Also, historical precident is that the tsar can, does reclaim an oligarch's property instantly, bogati (god in a box) Russians are responsible for the building, maintenance of Russian Orthodox tserkovs which are sprinkled throughout the countryside. Poor Russians always have a luxurious place to sit, meditate re God.


.....WARNING: BEWARE OF CAPITAL FLIGHT.........BEWARE OF CAPITAL FLIGHT.....

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

MEMO: Domino Effect Theory - LBJ will be the Last One

MEMORANDUM: Domino Effect Theory - LBJ will be the Last One
Date: December 2, 2014


But for we went to Vietnam.

Theory: 

LBJ said satellite nations will convert re Communism.

At time, LBJ no realize diff forms of Communists….China was re Vietnam not the USSR.


More flaws..CIA loses legitimacy in Central America.




Link to Tweet:

Donna Welles @DonnaWelles
#ColdWar IR theorists....Brazhnev Politburo is unknown but imp... #inpenetrable... X article.... #containment....front burner... @Telegraph

Donna Welles @DonnaWelles
X article...by George Kennan...Kennan could never get that there are 1-3,4 front burners....rest needs to lie low.... #containment...St Tak?

Donna Welles @DonnaWelles
What I think re #Containment?: @Telegraph Preferable to nuclear war....were the #cropBurnings necc? At time.... MGU..... Rus Fed not like...

Donna Welles @DonnaWelles
Alternatives to X #Containment?: Bad part - military industrial complex. Lit #Reagan bankrupted USSR. Bigger deal than realize.. #strategy?

Donna Welles @DonnaWelles
Modern #Containment re #UkraineCrisis2014....need study nature of Eastern Europe...organic power structures....#poland empire no Ukr.

Link to Tweet:

Donna Welles @DonnaWelles
Invented Ukr Joke re imcompatability .... Ukraine and West Europe. ))))))))) Ask me later.... BodKa i Pit. Eta .... i tak dale....shudka...

Donna Welles @DonnaWelles
Did we have to #contain South, Central America? "This hemisphere intends to remain the master of its own house!" - JFK @Telegraph #ColdWar

Donna Welles @DonnaWelles ·
What ws the plan re #containment in South, Central America? As said, MGU no joke...don't think cause famen though...

Link to Tweet:

Donna Welles ‏@DonnaWelles
Bad parts re #Containment in Americas...."This hemisphere intends to remain the master of its own house!" - JFK.... #Kennan1947 ))))))))))

Link to Tweet: 

Donna Welles ‏@DonnaWelles
Questions re #containment theory let me know, major if not only #ColdWar IR theory worth.....))))))))))) @navalny @KremlinRussia )))))) ???

Monday, December 1, 2014

ResProp: Break Down Light Pole into Components, Assign Values Origins

Research Proposal: Break Down Light Pole into Components, Assign Values Origins
Date: December 1, 2014


Research Design: 

Take 1, maybe 2 street posts - break down into roughly 20 pieces…..locate:

Company manufactured

Chemical Composition of Component (CCoC)

Origin of Country re CCoC

Report: 

Seems a lot of this aluminum is coming from Russia, Africa. Would like to know which country, which mine, safety of mine….

Yet unknown what else we'll find.

Duration: 

Year.

Attached: 

Photos re Light Pole, Street Post.






Sunday, November 30, 2014

Catholic - Reconciliation Primer - #Monotheism #Welles

Date: Nov 30, 2014
Works 10 out of 10 times...gift of Catholocism to Civilization..Rite of Reconciliation...


Catholic - Reconciliation Primer - #Monotheism #Welles 

#NewWorld


Unique to Catholicism: 

Math model re when realize committed sin, immediately process realignment. Must be canonized Catholic to receive sacrament of Reconciliation, must be w Catholic priest I Catholic mass post penance.

Anglicanism has a "Rite of the Penitent" but Anglicans not trained, sacrament not powerful.

Judasim, Islam absent. Muslim means "we're not Hindus but we fast a lot". Judasim means "God,religion of the Jews".

Tools: 

Formal Catholic Indoctrination, takes several months of intense study #BareMinimum
Catholic Priest
Personal Inventory re nature of Sin
Mass once penance complete

Process: 

Once realize sin, immediately confess to God. Soon as can, run to Catholic priest and confess. Priest will bless you and ordain penance. Complete penance, thank God, attend Mass w Holy Communion. Feel much better.

::Enter into Rasputin theology re do this much makes closer to God -- WARNING ::

Personal Inventory of Sin: 

Before confess to priest, perhaps whiling driving in car...conceptualize what was your sin? Re 10 commandments, 7 deadly sins. What did you do? Why was this a sin against God, yourself, and your neighbor?

Be aware re Venial, Mortal sins. Mortal sins means already in purgatory while walking around. Notice others already in purgatory, they breath air but they're already dead. Can return alive if confess, mass, I tak dale….

Euphoria once mass complete. Stay with it, life will get hard again. Pray in the mornings and do novenas. Thank God as often as can, talk to God as often as can.


..DISCLAIMER: Only Works if Fully Intend to Not Repeat Sin...Requires Mental Health....

Saturday, November 29, 2014

MEMO: Re Drop in Oil Prices..Russia Destab Econ?

Put this on the blog today...don't like idea re Saudia destab Russia econ if only say oil prices low. They import now anyway...think Arab oil needs to be tested for quality? Russia stuff likely good?? Created some new hashtags....let me know.....


MEMORANDUM: Re Drop in Oil Prices..Russia Destab Econ? 

Date: November 29, 2014


Been thinking re drop in oil prices. Saudis set the prices, think this isn't linked to much besides them saying what the price is..Now prices low and seems like Russia could set the price now. Russia should maintain current production levels and sell the oil at what they were selling it at before the drop. Likely Russian stuff is better anyway? If production is the same and prices are the same, which Russia can regulate internally, then the sales will be the same and the Russian economy will maintain integrity. Don't have to be dependant on the Arab world anymore to set oil prices. If want to buy from the Arabs then can but the Arabs themselves are starting to import nat gas....why is this?

IF

Production Same
Prices Same

THEN sales same and economy stable....

Don't need the Arabs...

Warmly,

Donna


NOTE: RE CLIMATE CHANGE -- WE DON'T WANT DEVELEOPING WORLD FILLED W OIL

Friday, November 28, 2014

MEMO: Insanity Brief re Marathon Battle of

MEMORANDUM: Insanity Brief re Marathon Battle of
Date: November 28, 2014


Battle of Marathon - Sequence w Thermopolae

Take Away: Periods of insanity re overwhelming
Herodotus reported that at the battle of Marathon there was a point, period of insanity among the Greek soldiers.

Akin to the Battle of Thermopolea 

Battle of Marathon - Greek Victory, Spartans v Darius

Battle of Thermopolea - Spartans wiped from the Earth re Xerxes

Transition from one to the other - Persian Invasions from the Sea 

Marathon had Persian combatants, overwhelming and Spartan soldiers lost composure. Clearly able to regroup as the battle of Marathon was an indisputable victory for the Greeks. Persians went back to Persia. What was left of them…..

Thermopolea…Persians brought even more troops and Spartans had no chance…..

Political Context 

Marathon was the first interaction bw Greeks, Persians. Athens asked Persia for help re Sparta, Persia interpreted this as Athens bec part of the Persian Empire. Athens wanted to be peers, allies while Persia at the time didn't have those. Athens resolved their dispute w Sparta "wo" Persia, when Persia asked for their tribute Athens so no…..Darius rolls up to Marathon and…..

Inevitable that Persia and the Greeks would meet but it was Athens asking for asst re Sparta that broke the ice…..Marathon sent the Persians home but Xerxes returned w more soldiers…..

Also, unknown what Athens was doing at Themopolea…….or Marathon..

Saturday, November 15, 2014

NFL Division ReDo - - #dar 2014

Today I made a suggestion to the NFL.....maybe redo the divisions......



NFC
AFC
East
East
Giants
Miami
Phili
Patriots
Dallas
Buffalo
Wash
NY Jets
North
North
Bears
Clevland
Vikings
Cincinat
GB
Pittsburgh
Detroit
Baltimore
South
South
Tampa
Jacksonville
Atlanta
Houston
Carolina
Tennessee
St. Louis
New Orleans
West
West
9ers
Denver
Seahawks
KC
Cardinals
Oakland
San Diego
Indi


Karl Galinsky re Emperor Hadrian's Wall - - #Rome


Karl Galinsky re Hadrian's Wall 
Date: November 15, 2014


Emperor Hadrian - Roman Empire covered the most land mass

Built wall around it.

From Africa.



It's not like being the Governor of Texas, Rick Perry....if you're the Roman Emperor.....think it could be assumed that you're qualified for the position.

Re string of emperors that were put there based on merit. ‪#‎UT‬

Catholic Theology Today


Catholic Theology Today 

Date: November 15, 2014


If you would chose God or Jesus…..which would you chose? 

Catholics would chose Jesus.

Birth Control 

Too many kids and people are hungry, not enough water. Need to protect against STDs as well.

Need to be better about integrating nature into theology. 

Already have Saints to do this, Francis and Claire work.

Economic Analysis of Mexico as I see It


Economic Analysis of Mexico as I see It 

Date: November 15, 2014




Only 10% Mexicans get bananas

Extreme drought, likely 100 years…..Chiuaua desert…..

Already integrated manufacturing sector, competes with China for jobs. Was more true before the cartels turned to coke instead of weed.

When coke/weed demand dries up - fork in the road: 

If meth/coke sales ----> no manufacturing sector


International companies won't go where meth is palpable, ripe with demand because poor, no food/water. People want to die and fast money for dealers.

MEMO: How for heavy people to lose weight? -- Decrease Stress Level


How for heavy people to lose weight? 

It is a state of stress that is keeping you fat. Your brain, psyche is always exhausted and you literally need, require food/carbs to keep you walking around during the day and well enough to make it home at night.

Solution:

Meaningfully decrease stress level and improve diet. Don't listen to your ipod as you walk. OK cleaning the house or on your computer, but in the car and walking around your brain needs to relax. Ipod music keeps your brain in a trance like Ambien and that's OK to fight against stress but it's like drinking soda, it would be better if you did it not that often.

As much as you possibly can, lie in bed in the dark and be still. Sit in the quiet and be still. Feel your muscles relaxing. Your muscles will relax before your mind will. When your mind starts to relax is when you'll stop craving bad food.

Craving vs Requireing: 

You require bad food when you're so tired you can barely stand. The rest of the time it's like smoking cigarettes.

Stretching: 

Spend some time each day if you can sitting on the floor stretching your legs and that will losen your muscles, help your mind relax.

Example on what to eat: 

Danishes always make you gain weight unless it's literally the only thing you eat all day..



 ….brought to you by the University of Texas - Austin ……..

Friday, November 14, 2014

WARNING: Small Private Colleges Don't Teach Football Players to Block #dar


WARNING: Small Private Colleges Don't Teach Football Players to Block  

Date: November 14, 2014

#NFL



Reputable College Football Programs in the United States of America 

Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas
Louisiana State University
Ole Miss
Alabama
Georgia
Florida
Penn State

Tempting to Recruit from Schools north of UGA and south of Penn State, USC but can't block.



....brought to you by the Daughters of the American Revolution....

Social Etiquette Manifesto - Non Profit Management #DAR

Social Etiquette Manifesto - Non Profit Management 

#DAR



What kinds of entities exist in the United States through which liquid capital flows? 

Government

For Profit

Non Profit


What are some good reasons to start a non profit? 

Own small business, doesn't make much money.

Disperse charitable funds to the needy.

Education.


What is the structure of a non profit? 

Board - Reputable, accessible members of society that can/do vouch for funds. Must meet regularly w/ ED. Beware of board members who profit, volunteer their time but not supposed to increase their own liquid capital reserves.

Executive Director - Works at the discretion of the board. Responsible for funds, analysis of funds, defensibility of funds.

Employees 

Volunteers 


MUST REGISTER W GOVERNMENT SO AS TO BE AN OFFICIAL USG NON PROFIT



....brought to you by the Daughters of the American Revolution.......





Sunday, September 28, 2014

"Funny Story About Anders Aslund re Moldova" - #KhodorkovskyMole

PLEASE FORWARD UP THE LINE.........PLEASE FORWARD UP THE LINE...


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Donna Welles <donnawelles@gmail.com>
Date: 2014-09-28 6:20 GMT-04:00
Subject: Funny Story about Anders Aslund re Moldova
To: 



Was thinking about when the Ukrainian president came here, asking for weapons and saying Putin was going to invade Moldova.....
This summer I saw Anders Aslund speak and he portrayed Moldova as a good place to invest money...
Thought to myself, "wow, my information on that is dated..."

Saturday, September 27, 2014

MEMO: Master Strategy - Increase US Exports re China


Date: September 27, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Master Strategy - Increase US Exports re China



Current Status: 

US lacks a mechanism to connect US vendors (USVs) to Global Procurement Opportunities (GPOs)

China mobilized and ready to strike w SOEs


China's SOEs vs USVs compete for K:

China's SOEs can undercut USVs

USV better quality, environmentally conscious, more inclined to train local population


Tools Needed - Connect USVs to GPOs: 

Searchable Database:

Complete list - companies registered in the US who are in good standing with USG and who have had 50 employees or more for the past 5 years;  Database categorized by industry, increasing detail re services/products offered

Team of Intel Analysts to scour for GPOs


Process - Connecting USVs to GPOs 

Intel analysts email USV when find a GPO

Thursday, September 25, 2014

MEMO: What would happen if US withdrew its 30K troops from South Korea? #MattMiller


September 25, 2014

MEMORANDUM: What would happen if US withdrew its 30,000 troops from South Korea?


#MattMiller


Will North Korea invade by land? 

Unlikely as there are millions of land mines along the DMZ.

Will North Korea invade by sea? 

Unlikely but possible.

Will China invade by sea? 

Possible.

What will happen to South Korea no matter if they are invaded or not? 

South Korea will become more like North Korea. Currently SK and NK occupy separate ends of the global connectivity spectrum. If US troops withdraw, the per capita SK ipad figure will be the first to suffer, then other quality of life indicators. South Korea is not Chinese and PRC will treat them as a subhuman state as they do ASEAN.

What is the benefit to global security for the 30,000 US troops to remain in SK? 

It provides a tangible limit to what the PRC can do in that part of the world.

What would I rather those 30,000 troops be doing? 

Walking around ASEAN, asking what they are hearing about PRC covert warfare being waged against ASEAN as well as the US and our allies.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Saudis - Epicenter of the Arab World, Parallel to Imperial China and Moscow's Prince


Date: September 24, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Saudis - Epicenter of the Arab World, Parallel Imperial China and Moscow's Prince


What is the structure of the Arab world? 

Saudi royal family is well respected by all, they are a royal family among royal families in the Arab world. US allies because Saudis see it as a service they provide to the Arab world to mediate between Arabs and the West. Modern times this means they set the world's oil prices. Also, they have the worldliness and the sophistication to not degrade their heritage through deception and coercion. They are legitimately our allies.

Like imperial China, the Arab world consists of a spiral outward from the Saudi family epicenter, other royal families and modern authoritarian regimes look to the Saudis for guidance.

Why doesn't a caucus work in Iraq? 

Arab world is an organized group of principalities similar to what existed in ancient Russia. Each of these principalities has a prince. The princes organize themselves and they look to a prince among princes. Moscow emerged in ancient Russia because Moscow's prince was the first to deny the Mongols their tribute. Saudi family parallels the ancient Muscovite prince, Ivan III or Ivan the Great.

So, to ask one town in Iraq to send 8 representatives and another to send 4, the Iraqis would view that as weak and inefficient.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

MEMO: Ideal Role for Mikhail Khodorkovsky - Reverse Trend of Capital Flight


September 23, 2014

MEMORANDUM: What is the ideal role for Mikhail Khodorkovsky?



What are MK's motivations re the Pro Europe Russia campaign?

Wants to make lots of money, to maintain connections and leverage in Russia while cultivating a legitimate persona in the west. A Russian pro-Europe political entity does this. And he isn't bound to this by law, he can also actively work against this behind closed doors. Major thing is that it allows him to appear legitimate to the West, we'll let him move in next door and pretend he didn't do what he did in the 1990s.


Trend MK reversed in the 2000's: 

Rest of oligarchs fighting over shares of floundering companies, MK began to build the companies he owned and paying taxes on them.

Ideal Role for MK - reverse trend of capital flight: 

Now the destructive trend in Russia is capital flight. Ideally, MK would encourage wealthy Russians to invest in Russia rather than to buy expensive Western real estate/sports teams. Build Russia rather than hide their wealth in the West…


We want Russia to be built and we don't want them to sell their forests to the Chinese.

Monday, September 22, 2014

MEMO: What are Iran and the Saudis talking about?


September 22, 2014

MEMORANDUM: What are Iran and the Saudis talking about?


Economics: 

Saudis control the world's oil prices. Iran has lots of natural resources, including natural gas. Some of the major oil producing Arab countries are starting to import natural gas.

Security: 

Lots of Saudi fighters going to Syria to fight, this affects Iran.

Diplomacy: 

Saudis are US allies, Iran in nuclear talks mediated by US right now.

Friday, September 19, 2014

MEMO: Likelihood that Putin will attack Georgia or Moldova


Date: September 19, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Likelihood that Putin will attack Georgia or Moldova as the Ukrainian President has suggested 




What is the likelihood that Putin will attack Georgia or Moldova as the Ukrainian president has suggested? 

Seems unlikely, but possible..

Why? 

Putin is looking to create on ongoing external threat that generates positive public opinion, allows for the efficient use of resources, and ends in victory.

Moldova 

Moldova would not be able to defend itself, but would be strategically difficult to maintain positive control given its location.

Georgia 

Borders Russia but Georgians are scary, Stalin was from Georgia. Russians see Georgia as a briar patch. Georgian language seems Asian to Russians, long letter combinations would bring back bad memories of the Mongols.


Neither country is attacking Russia right now, that seems important to Russian people.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

MEMO: PRC-ROK-DPRK Strategic Triangle - #MattMiller

Date: September 14, 2014


MEMORANDUM: PRC - ROK - DPRK Strategic Triangle 

#MattMiller


PRC - ROK 

Tons of trade.

ROK cannot say "no" to reasonable requests

ROK would prefer to stay neutral, pro West

Noticeable lack of territorial disputes


PRC - DPRK 

PRC manipulates DPRK on multiple levels, gives them enough technology to secure allegiance but not enough to be threatening or independent


ROK - DPRK 

Mine Field and US marines in between them

MEMO: What is going on re North Korea & #MattMiller


Date: September 14, 2014

MEMORANDUM: What is going on re North Korea & #MattMiller

US has zero intel on where they are being held so rescue attempt impossible

China controls NK decision making, so not just dealing with NK leadership, they are going to adhere to Beijing's guidance. This is important because we can't bribe them or threaten them with anything better or worse than the Chinese will do to them.

China can help us but they won't because then they would have to admit they are controlling NK.

US concerned, but should not be, re NK retaliating against SK.

South Korea won't help because they pretend to be helpless but in real life are trading all sorts of secrets to the Chinese.

Friday, September 12, 2014

MEMO: Pictorial Representation of Global #ISIS Strategy


Date: September 12, 2014 

MEMORANDUM: Pictorial Representation of Global #ISIS Strategy

Images: 

Western Coalition

Eastern Coalition

Territory: 

Syria

Iraq

Logistics: 

Drones - USA

Ground Troops - Iraq, Kurds

Intel -

Drawing and Photo by Donna Welles
9/12/14

MEMO: Math Model - Relative Media Coverage re NSA Surveillance & CIA Torture Programs


Date: September 12, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Math Model - Relative Media Coverage re NSA Surveillance & CIA Torture Programs


x axis: time

y axis: degree of media coverage

Both asymptotes: 

NSA approaches ambient noise level as surveillance unlikely to stop completely

CIA approaches zero as torture programs purported to have stopped completely

Drawing and Photo by Donna Welles

x axis time, y axis degree of media coverage
NSA line approaches ambient noise
CIA line approaches zero

Modern American Memes

Date: September 12, 2014

Modern American Memes



What is a meme? 

A group of clichés working together as a formidable infrastructure, observed by a specific group of people.



Conservative Meme 

Government is stupid

Government is corrupt

Government takes our guns

Government takes our money



Liberal Meme 

Government should stay out of our lives

Abortion is always OK

Gay sex is always OK

Thursday, September 11, 2014

MEMO: Relating Internet Freedom and Economic Efficiency


Date: September 11, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Relating Internet Freedom and Economic Efficiency



Positive correlation between internet freedom and economic efficiency.

Exists a spectrum of internet freedom, as move toward authoritarian end the economy gets less efficient.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

MEMO: Identifying and Classifying a Sociopath


Date: September 10, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Identifying and Classifying a Sociopath



What is a sociopath? 

Craves destruction, looks for ways to destroy people, projects, systems, themselves…

(Normal people feel more comfortable around health and constructive behavior…)

Early Warning Signs: 

Lies, negative words

Craves being in the mix of things

Discernible Pattern: 

When people around them are happy, making progress they feel uncomfortable and actively try to destroy, reverse said progress.

Spectrums within sociopaths: 

Threshold of how much destruction they crave- 

Must rape/kill women or merely desires to make people feel bad about themselves?

Willingness to do things to satisfy cravings- 

Actively hunt people to rape/murder or avoid activity that could lead to incarceration?

Monday, September 8, 2014

MEMO: What is going on re Putin capture Estonian spy in Estonia?


Date: September 8, 2014

MEMORANDUM: What is going on re Putin capture Estonian spy in Estonia? 

Overview: 

Putin is trying different tactics in his efforts to establish a long term external threat.

Why now? 

Turning point in the Ukraine crisis, Russians seem to not want to go to war with Ukraine. Also, might be coordinating with Chinese as to hurt NATO when we're making progress re ISIS.

What can we expect in the future?

So far Putin has been very efficient with his resources. Goal is not to gain territory necessarily, but to establish an ongoing external threat. Ukrainians were not attacking Russia, but Russians are inherently fearful of spies. Putin grabbed a real spy on the Estonian side of the border.

Sunday, September 7, 2014

MEMO: Current China/North Korea Dynamic - #MattMiller

#MattMiller


Date: September 7, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Current China/North Korea Dynamic 

Overview: 

Big brother little brother relationship, China boosts NK's ego all the while manipulating them on multiple levels.

China's Message to North Korea: 

You're so cool, you're so powerful, we take you seriously!!!

We will give you technology!!!

Note: China does not berate NK publicly and they are markedly not helpful re NK's nuclear program…. 

China's Master Strategy: 

Give NK just enough technology - crappy surveillance drones, some conventional weapons, etc. - so as to secure NK allegiance.

China could conceivably count on NK military if it were to launch a ground offensive.

China not going to give too much technology, nuclear weapons to NK lest NK become powerful enough to say "No" to China or even turn their weapons on the mainland.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

MEMO: Math Model of US Responsibility in Iraq Over Time #ISIS

Date: September 4, 2014


MEMORANDUM: What is the current level of responsibility the United States has in Iraq? 

See Below:

X axis: time re the March 2003 invasion

Y axis: degree of responsibility which fades over time....eventually approaching zero

#ISIS




Drawing and photo by Donna Welles
September 4, 2014

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

MEMO: Red Army vs Modern Russian Conventional Forces

Date: September 2, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Red Army vs Modern Russian Conventional Forces 


Are we scared of Putin? 

We're scared of the Red Army.


Personnel: 

Red Army soldiers would be subject to grave consequences re Communist party procedures.

Modern Russians just want to serve their brief period of conscription and get back home to make money and start their lives.


Training and equipment: 

Comparable


Which one is scarier? 

Red Army because the west would never be able to match those casualties.

Modern Russian leaders are subject to public opinion restrictions on loss of life.

MEMO: Will Putin Take Kiev?

Date: September 2, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Will Putin take Kiev? 


Putin's current thinking: 

Put more and more troops in Ukraine so if he decides to take Kiev, the battle will be easier and easier.

When would Putin try to take Kiev if that is his plan?

When he is sure that:

- Russians would support this, would not create internal confusion

- Enough Russian troops in position so as to make the battle not an embarrassment

But, even if both of those 2 are present, that doesn't mean he'll attack. His goal is to create an ongoing external threat. 

Prognosis: 

Decide very soon whether to cede Ukraine or fight for it.

Could Ukraine be saved? 

If he keeps sending convoys, very soon the answer is no. But it could be the case that there aren't currently enough troops in Ukraine to ensure a Russian victory. If NATO makes an honest effort to disable convoys and discourage more from entering, Ukraine can be saved. But I think a month from now, too many trucks and it will be very hard to get that territory back. Look at how fast the convoys have been entering so you can graph how many troops have come how fast.

My math model of - How many Russian convoys entering Ukraine constitutes an invasion post from Aug 22.
X axis is # convoys and Y axis is degree of invasion. X trends toward infinite convoys but at some point the y axis will represent something that is undeniably an invasion. 

Monday, September 1, 2014

Alternate Interpretation of Robert Frost Poem


Alternate Interpretation of Robert Frost Poem 

The woods are lovely, dark, and deep 
But I have promises to keep 
And miles to go before I sleep 
And miles to go before I sleep 

Conclusion: 

Going through the woods in the dark and the deep and the lovely are keeping the promises, and this is life's journey and it's a life of adventure and joy.

Saturday, August 30, 2014

MEMO: US Troops in Afghanistan Timeline

Date: August 30, 2014

MEMORANDUM: US Troops in Afghanistan Timeline



Decide: 

Will we be there indefinitely or are we going to set an arbitrary move out date?

Options: 

Arbitrary everyone is out date.

Arbitrary troops out but still money for their military to function.

Perpetual occupation force.

If we leave will it be like ISIS? 

I don’t think we can know, but are we saying we're going to have a perpetual troop presence there? If the answer is no, then we need to leave.

MEMO: British argument on why it's OK to work with Assad (Sir Malcolm Rifkind)

Date: August 30, 2014

MEMORANDUM: British argument on why it's OK to work with Assad (Sir Malcolm Rifkind)



- When have we worked with bad people before and people didn't yell at us/it worked? 

 ○ Stalin?

- Is Stalin a parallel to Assad in modern terms? 

 ○ Yes.

- Conclusion: 

 ○ It's OK.

How are Stalin and Assad parallels? 

Authoritarian regimes, personality regimes, ruthless and in touch with what is going on in their own territories. Also, they're currently engaged with the enemy and have no ideas about surrender. Both Assad and Stalin will fight until the end.

Friday, August 29, 2014

MEMO: Master strategy re Ukraine, Russia invasion


Date: August 29, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Master strategy re Ukraine, Russia invasion 

Decide: 

Will we concede the territory or fight for it?

Concede Territory: 

Stop the sanctions, not helping but hurting our economies.

Fight for it: 

Send in special forces teams soon and assist the Ukrainians with the Russian convoys who are lost on the Ukrainian side of the border.

MEMO: Putin's Arctic Threats


Date: August 29, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Putin's Arctic Threats 

What is Putin doing? 

Denial
Counter-accusations
Threats

Which means what? 

He feels defensive, I think he still doesn't know what the domestic sentiment is right now so in the meantime he's deflecting international criticism.

Does he really mean that about the Arctic? 

Well, I left early from the Arctic discussion, my understanding is that it's like the internet, there is no infrastructure in place at all for people to start thinking about who has right to what up there.

So, if he's saying he's going to bypass the process of forming that infrastructure and just start putting dudes up there in jackets with ice breaker boats, it's possible, but it would be a big project for him.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

MEMO: Russian Public Opinion and the Future of Ukraine - Spatial Representation

Date: Aug 27, 2014

MEMORANDUM

Russian Public Opinion and the Future of Ukraine - Spatial Representation

What is the Ukraine Conflict doing right now?

Until now it's given Russia a focal point outside of the borders of Russia, but if that focal point is obscured it could lead to chaos internally.

MEMO: Why do American scholars inaccurately characterize Sino-Russian relations as antagonistic in nature?


Date: June 15, 2014

MEMORANDUM: Why do American scholars inaccurately characterize Sino-Russian relations as antagonistic in nature?

Summary of Theory:

American scholars see a parallel between Sino-Russian and Sino-Indian relations when none exists.

Framing the Perceived Parallel:

Both relationships were peaceful in nature until the mid-20th C when both Sino-Russian and Sino-Indian relations experienced a period of open hostility.

Divergent Trajectories:

Neither China nor Russia retains feelings of animosity; only India retains ill will.

Why the Different Reactions to Mid-20th C Period of Open Hostility?:

While India was shaken to its core by Chinese aggression in 1962, Russia and China view the Sino-Soviet split in the greater context of their ancient geopolitical paradigms.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

MEMO: Ways to interpret the buzzing Chinese fighter jet on US vessel (Aug 2014)

MEMORANDUM


Ways to interpret the buzzing Chinese fighter jet on US vessel (Aug 2014):

1) Rogue Pilot

2) Rogue Military Commander

3) CCP reminding us that we're supposed to be rebalancing to Asia and now we're interested in ISIS and also we don't have a carrier fleet anymore so how interested are we in protecting the South China Sea from Chinese aggression?

#AntiShipTechnology

Saturday, August 23, 2014

MEMO: Master Strategy re ISIS


Master Strategy re ISIS

Coordinate efforts w/ Iraqi government, Kurds, and Assad.

West can play a supportive role, rely on Assad for intelligence.

Lukman Faily

Iraqi Ambassador to the US, saw him speak July 2014
Washington, DC
Photo by Donna Welles

Friday, August 22, 2014

Catholics and Contraception - Symbolic Logic Approach




Catholics and Contraception - Symbolic Logic Approach



Why does the Catholic Church oppose contraception?

It confuses the ultimate form of intimacy with the only acceptable form of intimacy.

MEMO: How many Russian convoys entering Ukraine constitutes an invasion?

MEMORANDUM


How many Russian convoys entering Ukraine constitutes an invasion?

Don't think the answer is 1, it's between 1 and infinity….

Why is this significant?

No matter how many convoys Putin sends, he can always argue they're convoys rather than an invasion.

Any number the west assigns will in truth be arbitrary.


 

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Archetype of John the Baptist - Insufferable Despair/Break with Reality

Archetype of John the Baptist - Insufferable Despair/Break with Reality


John the Baptist:

Archetype for insufferable despair, break with reality. When John learned Jesus wasn't going to rescue him, he no longer accepted God's perfection. Could not resolve the paradox, how Jesus could 'fail' him and God be God.

"Ghetto University" Defined


"Ghetto University" Defined:

People are hungry, $20 means a lot. And what people do to survive when $20 means so much creates stress, and some people emerge with better lives, some stay and get addicted to drugs, some go to jail, and some die.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Paradox of Christian Theology - Symbolic Logic Approach


Paradox of Christian Theology - Symbolic Logic Approach

God exists between the moments.
Those moments include pain.
God exists amid the pain.
Pain is acceptable.
Pain isn't painful. < ---- that's the paradox


Tribute to James Foley

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Rear Admiral Charles McVay III and the USS Indianapolis


What:

Rear Admiral Charles McVay III and the USS Indianapolis

Historical Significance:

It's an important story re US military history, WWII. Was a heavy cruiser that got sunk by a Japanese sub in 1945. Significant because 900 sailors had to float around in the ocean for 4 days, many got eaten by sharks. Rear Admiral Charles McVay III commanded it when it went down, he survived and was court martialed for not zigzagging. McVay ended up killing himself.

Personal Significance:

Story is important to me because I think he didn't deserve to be court-martialed, it was politically motivated. He'd been at Iwo Jima and Okinawa and by all accounts was a good man. It wasn't until Bill Clinton that his memory was officially exonerated of the sinking of the Indianapolis.

Friday, August 15, 2014

MEMO: Scenarios Re Russian Convoy in Ukraine


MEMO: Scenarios Re Russian Convoy in Ukraine

Purpose of the Convoy:

Raise the Temperature

Possible Scenarios:

-> Convoy will stay the same

Seems they can stay as long as they like, might be there a while.

-> Convoy will leave

Convoy could stay for a very long time, but Putin might decide he wants to lower the temperature at which point he'd recall it.

-> Convoy is precursor to full scale invasion of Ukraine

Possible but unlikely, Putin doesn't have the resources for full scale invasion.

-> Putin doesn't even know what he'll do next re the convoy, he's waiting to judge the international reaction and he'll make his next move accordingly.

My favorite option.

Summary:

Convoy has already served the purpose of the convoy, he has raised the temperature and has only paid the price of gas to drive into Ukraine. Nobody has died and everyone is freaking out trying to figure out what is going on.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

MEMO: Iran a Normal State - Benefits to US Interests


MEMORANDUM: Iran a Normal State - Benefits to US Interests


Historical Context:

After the fall of the USSR, Iran became the US' nemesis.

What would happen if Iran were to become a normal state?

Negative:

Likely there would be some residual 'revolutionary' behavior such as arms shipments to people we might not want to have guns.

Positive:

Iran's intellectual class would revert to their 3,000 year old Persian roots and they would contribute to the global fabric in new and exciting ways.

Overview:

Generally, it is in everyone's best interests for all nations to be happy and healthy.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

MEMO: China's Modern Tributary System Invalidated


Date: June 16, 2014

MEMORANDUM:
 
Modern People's Republic of China (PRC) vs. Imperial China - Tributary System


Summary of Theory:

The PRC wants to return to Imperial China's tributary system but has little to offer in exchange for the allegiance of its subordinates.

Tributary System Under Imperial China:

Imperial China extended an umbrella of technological advancement, economic sophistication, and military protection around its subordinates.

Modern PRC Lacks Imperial China's Sophistication:

In addition to the spillover manufacturing jobs China's neighbors enjoy when Chinese wages rise, the PRC can offer its regional partners only trade and cash.

Western Influence:

Technology and security alliances are coming from the West.

Prognosis:

It is unlikely the PRC will rise to the level of Imperial China's sophistication anytime soon.

Territorial Claims:

The PRC's land and maritime claims are perhaps invalidated if they are rooted in Imperial China's quid pro quo.

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

MEMO: China Internal Security Thresholds


MEMORANDUM: China Internal Security Thresholds
 

Greater Context: 

China's internal security spending eclipses its defense budget.  

Many violent local uprisings (VLU) occur annually, CCP has to date effectively contained.  

Pollution is raising the pressure of public unrest, people are being poisoned by the air they breathe.
 

Will China's masses pose an existential threat to the CCP through a violent uprising? 

Possible Scenarios: 

  1. VLU stays the same in terms of frequency and size, small riots throughout the country that are quickly contained by the PLA.
  2. VLU decrease, trend toward pacification.
  3. A single VLU spreads faster than the PLA is able to contain it, unknown consequences.
  4. Multiple VLU are coordinated into a national anti-CCP campaign. 

Likelihood of Various Scenarios: 

1),2) Assess the sparks that ignite VLU. Often they result from corruption of local magistrates, violent local law enforcement. Ask: Are the sparks becoming less frequent, severe? 

  1. Is the pressure building up such that one of these VLU would spread faster than the PLA is able to contain it?
  2. Who would coordinate the VLU into a national campaign? So far the VLU seem spontaneous and aimless. Internet is method to coordinate, but it is closely monitored by the PLA.  

Summary: 

The impetus for a VLU spreading faster than the PLA is able to contain it would be how many people are dying from pollution.  

Need to study methods of PLA riot control.  

Need to study the frequency, severity of the sparks.

Saturday, July 26, 2014

MEMO: US - Japan - India Strategic Triangle




US - India

US concern re % of Indian men who are guilty of rape, gang rape.

Corruption likely to be somewhat curbed under Modi, but endemic in nature re US business interests.

India has intelligence, standing army, motivation and will to oppose China.

India is world's biggest democracy.

Concern India will share US intelligence within unknown other parties.


Japan - India

Japan in control.

Complimentary in terms of land vs. sea powers.

Natural allies re China.

Japanese companies seem to do better in India than US companies.


US - Japan

US would GREATLY benefit from Japanese intelligence re everything in Pacific, Japanese technology.

Japan likely to share US intelligence with unknown other parties.

Japan seems genuinely ready to oppose China.


US vs Japan + India

Constant curiosity as to what India and Japan are planning, seem to be already coordinating efforts re US.

US newcomer to Asia, would be wise to set up protocols and maintain them.

MEMO: Post Soviet Russia Timeline


MEMORANDUM: Post - Soviet Russia Timeline 

Yeltsin Era - 1990's 

Americans should remember how they supported the Yeltsin administration, they found it 'democratic'. However, the era was more defined by the millions of premature deaths than voter efficacy. China points to the Yeltsin era as clear evidence that democracy doesn't work.  Russia exited the Yeltsin era with a male life expectancy of 58. 

Putin Era - Aug 1999 to Present  

1999 - 2008  President 

Second Chechen War occupied this entire period.  

Sep 1999 Moscow apartment bombings are Russia's 9/11, blamed on Chechen separatists. Invasion follows soon afterward, deescalated in phases over next decade. Putin's only platform in the 2000 election was to invade Chechnya, refused to campaign.  

Putin himself is very likely responsible for the 1999 apartment bombings. So, Putin manufactured a Russian 9/11, used the following invasion of Chechnya as his sole political platform for the 2000 election, and maintained the violence in Chechnya for a decade so as to provide Russia with an ongoing external threat.  

Aug 2008 Invasion of Georgia.  

Domestic Policies 

Putin gets oligarchs to start paying taxes, building infrastructure, gangland assassinations go down. People can live in a relative peace.  

2008 - 2012 PM 

President Medvedev "liberalized" Russia. 

The effect was that Russian internal stability was weakened dramatically. Oligarchs ran wild, public opinion turned to blogging and the bloggers coordinated massive protests, etc. Blogger activists have been neutralized. 

No external belligerent behavior until internal threats had been neutralized.  

2012 - President  

Putin is back in power, has his external campaign that revitalizes Russian nationalism.  

We can only hope he's cracking down on oligarch abuses. We want him to keep the oligarchs in line - these are very very dangerous individuals and the FSB are the best people to manage their affairs.

MEMO: 21st C Expansionism - Russia vs. China


Date: July 19, 2014

MEMORANDUM: 21st C Expansionism - Russia vs. China

Similarities:

Ancient countries w/ imperial maps at their disposal.

Struggling to maintain internal stability in post communism era.

Xi and Putin strong leaders, can direct the actions of their countries as they like.

Differences:

China believes it is their destiny to reclaim lost territory. Timeframe determined by rate of economic growth. Possibly looking toward 2049 as important milestone. (CJ)

Russia seems to act belligerently intermittently so as to divert attention to external threats. Timeframe determined as public attention to previous campaign fades.

Prognosis:

Chinese behavior harder to predict, intent on reclaiming lost territory.

Expect Russia to engage in drawn-out violent campaigns intermittently and indefinitely.

Saturday, July 19, 2014

How is the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis to be understood by Americans?

How is the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis to be understood by Americans?


Analyze parallels between 2014 Crimean crisis and Second Chechen War (1999-2000).

Similarities between Ukrainian Crisis and Second Chechen War:

Putin instigated both crises so as to give the Russian people an outside threat to counter, directs focus away from internal turmoil.

Prognosis:

Second Chechen War served its purpose, Russian population rallied around Putin. Conflict deescalated in several phases over next decade.

Ukrainian Crisis could very well be dragged out over many years. Putin will find a temperature to fit his needs.

Things to keep in mind:

-> Putin doesn't have the resources for full scale wars with great powers.

-> Some believe Putin is responsible for the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings, he can be very creative and kill his own people.

-> Absolutely his intention is to maintain the internal integrity of Russia, no matter what the cost.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Sen. Kaine's Efforts to Rewrite the 1973 War Powers Resolution


          Today I attended "Reforming the 1973 War Powers Resolution" featuring Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) at the CSIS here in Washington, DC.


What I took away from Sen. Kaine’s remarks:


There is certainly a need to establish an “accepted norm” – “How does a nation make a national commitment to use its forces?”


Sen. Kaine is working on creating a new War Powers Resolution that does the following:


1) Define “war”


2) Define what it means for the President to “consult with Congress”


3) Establish a mandatory voting requirement – Congress must vote YES before troops are committed abroad


The bill is in the VERY early stages, but here’s where they’re at so far:


1) “war” is defined as “7+ days of committed kinetic action abroad”


2) In order for the President to “consult with Congress” – The bill will create a “consulting committee” that is regularly briefed by the President. If this consulting committee is briefed, the standard has been met.


3) This was vague.


My thoughts:


Item 1 Needs a troop number so as to facilitate committing Special Forces teams abroad without congressional approval.


Item 2 The “consulting committee” sounds like a reasonable idea – a formalized flow of information.


Item 3 Needs to be the teeth of the bill. In order for this bill to really disallow an executive from unilaterally committing the nation to war, there needs to be a clear deterrent built in. Perhaps Item 3 could even map out the impeachment process if a certain number of troops are committed abroad for too long.



Tuesday, May 13, 2014

“Mitigating Religious Conflict in Nigeria”


          Today I attended the “Mitigating Religious Conflict in Nigeria” event at the CSIS here in Washington, DC.


Two Main Takeaways:


1) There is a difference of opinion between the U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) as to the extent of religious freedom currently enjoyed by Nigerians. Today’s speakers were from USCIRF. Very knowledgeable, articulate people.


U.S. DoS – violence demarcated by ethic, political, etc. lines
USCIRF – people are being killed because of their religion


USCIRF experts say that what is left out of the DoS analysis is the opinion on the ground in Nigeria, that people understand they’re being killed “as Muslims” or “as Christians”.


My thoughts: I found the USCIRF report very credible.


2) But for high level corruption within the Nigerian government, there would not be the religious violence that exists in the country today.


My question: “Can you talk about the nature of the corruption that stymies internal policing? Is it in the form of bribes, extortion, etc?”


They said $billions get lost, cops don’t get paid, and then cops get bribed to look the other way. Vertical integration graft.


My thoughts: This means internal policing is a systemic problem, not very easily solved. USCIRF’s recommendations to the USG are aimed at leveraging US power in Nigeria – we want religious intolerance to become taboo. Again, I find the USCIRF strategy very credible.


Speakers:


Dr. Zuhdi Jasser Vice Chair, U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) 

Tiffany Lynch Senior Policy Analyst, USCIRF

Monday, May 12, 2014

Brief History of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs)


          Today I attended "Regionalism in a Globalized World" at the CSIS here in Washington, DC. Below I've transcribed from the report the history of RTAs:




          Regional trade agreements have been forged for centuries. The first modern-day regional trade agreements were launched in the late-1950’s. But it is since the 1990s that RTAs have spread wildfire-like around the world. The wave started with the formation of sub-regional pacts, such as Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) forged in 1991 between Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay; the consolidation of the European Union, including the launch of the Single Market in 1993, and deepening the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) throughout the 1990s, and, perhaps most notably, the 1994 formation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) among the United States, Canada and Mexico.
          Bloc formation was followed by prolific bilateralism. The EU forged numerous FTAs with Eastern European to-be EU members, while the United States negotiated FTAs with Chile and Central America, and Latin American countries signed agreements with each other. The RTA wave subsequently engulfed Asia. The latest RTAs are transcontinental, with such partners as United States and Morocco, Mexico and Japan, and Chile and the European Union having formed bilateral agreements, among numerous others.
          Up until the 1990s reticent to form preferential agreements, the United States has become one of the most prolific integrators, signing 14 agreements in little over a decade with partners in the Americas, Asia, and the Middle East, and currently pursuing the rather ambitious Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement with several Pacific Rim nations. Other particularly keen integrators include Mexico, Chile, Peru, Singapore, Canada, and the European Union.
          Not only have integration schemes mushroomed; their content has become more complex and encompassing. Most agreements go beyond market access in goods to address trade in services and so-called behind-the-border issues, such as investment, intellectual property rights, competition policy, and government procurement, and e-commerce. RTAs come in many flavors, but they also have clustered into distinct “families”, particularly around key trading nations such as the United States, European Union, and Singapore. US agreements and the many agreements tailored after them in the Americas are particularly encompassing, as are EU’s agreements. Some sub-regional from macroeconomic cooperation to labor mobility and coordination of members’ positions in multilateral trade negotiations.

Saturday, May 10, 2014

Geopolitical Issues re Targeted Killings


Issues:


International law legalities re killing people in other countries


Opinions of the international community – both our allies and non-allies – re Targeted Killings


Do Targeted Killings create more terrorists than they neutralize?


Drone proliferation






Hypothetical Situations:


Ideal Targeted Killing:


Three bad guys alone in desert, cannot arrest them, must kill immediately or else be exposed to immanent threat


Nightmare Scenario re Targeted Killing:


Peaceful families sitting at cafes in Yemen concerned bombs will fall on them at any moment

Thursday, May 8, 2014

CSIS Event: "Sustaining the U.S. Lead in DoD Unmanned Systems"


Today I attended the Sustaining the U.S. Lead in DoD Unmanned Systems event at the CSIS here in Washington, DC.


What I learned re Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA’s):


• Re War on Terror - RPA’s concentrated over Afghanistan and Iraq, now spread out more
• Can switch theaters very quickly – just need to reboot and brief the men
• Current status much like aircraft after WWI – used initially for surveillance and then moved into combat/commercial sectors
• U.S. Navy behind Air Force by about a decade
• U.S. Navy working to integrate RPA’s into systems whereas the Air Force has a separate fleet of RPA’s
• Collaboration is good among the services
• U.S. Marine Corps interested in ground drones, Navy interested in submerged vehicles


My analysis:


• All 4 panelists very excited about this technology, can probably speak for the military as a whole.
• Noticeable lack of emphasis on geopolitical ramifications of RPA’s
• No mention of proliferation issues


Speakers:


Panel 1: Service Perspective in FY15 and Beyond
Featuring:
Colonel Kenneth Callahan, USAF
Director, Air Force RPA Capabilities Division
Captain Chris Corgnati, USN
Deputy Director, ISR Capabilities, OPNAV N2/N6
Lieutenant Colonel Glenn Lapoint, USA
Unmanned Aerial Systems Chief, HQDA G3/5/7
Lieutenant Colonel Michael Hixson, USMC
Unmanned Ground Systems CIO, HQMC CD&I
Moderated by:
Colonel Ethan Griffin
U.S. Air Force Fellow, CSIS