Saturday, July 26, 2014

MEMO: US - Japan - India Strategic Triangle




US - India

US concern re % of Indian men who are guilty of rape, gang rape.

Corruption likely to be somewhat curbed under Modi, but endemic in nature re US business interests.

India has intelligence, standing army, motivation and will to oppose China.

India is world's biggest democracy.

Concern India will share US intelligence within unknown other parties.


Japan - India

Japan in control.

Complimentary in terms of land vs. sea powers.

Natural allies re China.

Japanese companies seem to do better in India than US companies.


US - Japan

US would GREATLY benefit from Japanese intelligence re everything in Pacific, Japanese technology.

Japan likely to share US intelligence with unknown other parties.

Japan seems genuinely ready to oppose China.


US vs Japan + India

Constant curiosity as to what India and Japan are planning, seem to be already coordinating efforts re US.

US newcomer to Asia, would be wise to set up protocols and maintain them.

MEMO: Post Soviet Russia Timeline


MEMORANDUM: Post - Soviet Russia Timeline 

Yeltsin Era - 1990's 

Americans should remember how they supported the Yeltsin administration, they found it 'democratic'. However, the era was more defined by the millions of premature deaths than voter efficacy. China points to the Yeltsin era as clear evidence that democracy doesn't work.  Russia exited the Yeltsin era with a male life expectancy of 58. 

Putin Era - Aug 1999 to Present  

1999 - 2008  President 

Second Chechen War occupied this entire period.  

Sep 1999 Moscow apartment bombings are Russia's 9/11, blamed on Chechen separatists. Invasion follows soon afterward, deescalated in phases over next decade. Putin's only platform in the 2000 election was to invade Chechnya, refused to campaign.  

Putin himself is very likely responsible for the 1999 apartment bombings. So, Putin manufactured a Russian 9/11, used the following invasion of Chechnya as his sole political platform for the 2000 election, and maintained the violence in Chechnya for a decade so as to provide Russia with an ongoing external threat.  

Aug 2008 Invasion of Georgia.  

Domestic Policies 

Putin gets oligarchs to start paying taxes, building infrastructure, gangland assassinations go down. People can live in a relative peace.  

2008 - 2012 PM 

President Medvedev "liberalized" Russia. 

The effect was that Russian internal stability was weakened dramatically. Oligarchs ran wild, public opinion turned to blogging and the bloggers coordinated massive protests, etc. Blogger activists have been neutralized. 

No external belligerent behavior until internal threats had been neutralized.  

2012 - President  

Putin is back in power, has his external campaign that revitalizes Russian nationalism.  

We can only hope he's cracking down on oligarch abuses. We want him to keep the oligarchs in line - these are very very dangerous individuals and the FSB are the best people to manage their affairs.

MEMO: 21st C Expansionism - Russia vs. China


Date: July 19, 2014

MEMORANDUM: 21st C Expansionism - Russia vs. China

Similarities:

Ancient countries w/ imperial maps at their disposal.

Struggling to maintain internal stability in post communism era.

Xi and Putin strong leaders, can direct the actions of their countries as they like.

Differences:

China believes it is their destiny to reclaim lost territory. Timeframe determined by rate of economic growth. Possibly looking toward 2049 as important milestone. (CJ)

Russia seems to act belligerently intermittently so as to divert attention to external threats. Timeframe determined as public attention to previous campaign fades.

Prognosis:

Chinese behavior harder to predict, intent on reclaiming lost territory.

Expect Russia to engage in drawn-out violent campaigns intermittently and indefinitely.

Saturday, July 19, 2014

How is the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis to be understood by Americans?

How is the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis to be understood by Americans?


Analyze parallels between 2014 Crimean crisis and Second Chechen War (1999-2000).

Similarities between Ukrainian Crisis and Second Chechen War:

Putin instigated both crises so as to give the Russian people an outside threat to counter, directs focus away from internal turmoil.

Prognosis:

Second Chechen War served its purpose, Russian population rallied around Putin. Conflict deescalated in several phases over next decade.

Ukrainian Crisis could very well be dragged out over many years. Putin will find a temperature to fit his needs.

Things to keep in mind:

-> Putin doesn't have the resources for full scale wars with great powers.

-> Some believe Putin is responsible for the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings, he can be very creative and kill his own people.

-> Absolutely his intention is to maintain the internal integrity of Russia, no matter what the cost.