Wednesday, May 20, 2015

[(Burundi. Status Report.) 20,5. 2015. Welles.]

[(Burundi. Status Report.) 20,5. 2015. Welles.]

Parliamentary Elections, June 5.
Presidential Election, June 26.

Failed Coup, Tanzania Peace Talks
Calm, after the storm of the "failed coup".
"Failed Coup" occurred, during Tanzania talks while President Pierre N was out of the country.
President Pierre N, vows no retaliation.
Few of the Coup Leaders, on the run.
Hutus. Tutsis.

Refugee, Mortality Figures
105,000 people have fled.
Casualties, less than 100.

President Pierre N, seems intent on running for reelection.
Are the protesters as intent on ousting him?
(5 year terms, been in office since 2005)

African Union
Unknown, African Union view.
Does the African Union have a position, third term election?
Burundi supplies troops, African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia.

West Africa, Concept of the Two Term Presidency
There was a bill in West Africa, just got withdrawn.
Would have made it mandatory, ALL presidents in the region limited to two terms.

20,5. 2015.

Welles, Donna E.
Welles, Donna E. 

Saturday, May 16, 2015

Burundi. Status Report. 15,5. 2015. Welles. ((Coup))

Burundi. Status Report. 15,5. 2015. Welles. ((Coup))

President, Pierre Nkurunziza. (Hutu)
Capital, Bujumbura.
100,000 have fled.
President, in office 10 years.
Seeks, 3rd Term.
Court, said 3rd Term constitutional. (Report, under duress.)
Street fighting, control back and forth.
Weapons, increase since machetes. Projectile now, no projectile then.
Hutus, Tutsis.

Impasse, Nature of:

Unknown, will protesters go home if President Pierre N still in office?
Seems unlikely, President Pierre N will relinquish his office.

What was outcome, 13 May talks in Tanzania?
What do local African governments think, 3rd Term - President Pierre N?
What is quality of life, Burundi people re President Pierre N regime?
Do protesters, have any demands other than President Pierre N relinquish office?
Are (Hutus Loyalists) or are (Tutsis Loyalists)?
(Right now Hutus are loyalists.)

15,5. 2015.

Welles, Donna E.
Welles, Donna E. 

Thursday, May 14, 2015

[PRC, Algeria. Engagement, 2005-2014. Infrastructure Additions.]

[PRC, Algeria. Engagement, 2005-2014. Infrastructure Additions.]
[PRC, Algeria. Engagement, 2005-2014. Infrastructure Additions. Welles. 14,5. 2015.]

Timeline, 2005-2014. Energy – Real Estate, Aviation.

2005: Agriculture, Unknown Energy Project.

Algeria. (Big Projects)
Highways. 2006. ((6.2))
Aviation. 2006.
Rail. 2009. (2.57)
Autos. 2009.
[[2011 Real Estate, Real Estate, Real Estate, Technology, Tourism, Tourism. 2011.]]
[[2012 Real Estate, Real Estate, Real Estate. 2012.]]
Highways. 2012. (1.2)
[[2013 Other, Tourism. 2013.]]
Highways. 2013. (1.18)
[[2014 Real Estate.]]
Aviation. 2014. (890)
No major shipping projects, 2005-2014.

Details, unknown Energy Project. 2005.
2005        May        CNPC        $390                SONATRACH        Energy                Algeria        Arab World
Details, unknown project. 2013.
2013        July        State Construction Engineering        $160        Other                Algeria        Arab World

14,5. 2015.

Welles, Donna E.
Welles, Donna E.

Monday, May 11, 2015

Albania. What is going on? 10,5. 2015. Welles.

Albania. What is going on? 10,5. 2015. Welles. 

Serbia, Albania, Macedonia. (Italy)

Albania, armed to the teeth population.
Albania, economy based on manufacturing. 
Albania, economy a little bigger than Macedonia.
Albania, economy a little more advanced than Macedonia.
Albania, economy per bilateral trade w Italy.

Ethnic, violent Albanians have attempted to move East.
Bigger countries, Serbia & Italy.

Small country invading a smaller country.
Albania invading Macedonia. 
Big brother, Serbia. (Automobile industry.)
Trading partner, Italy.
Albania lies between Italy & Macedonia.
Albania cannot gain territory West, so it moved East.

10, 5. 2015. 

Welles, Donna E. 
Welles, Donna E.

Monday, May 4, 2015

Bilateral Trade. South America. United States, PRC, Japan, Russia. 4,5. 2015. Welles.

I have completed for now my research, bilateral trade in South America.

I have found that the PRC is active, 5 biggest economies.
   Brazil, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, and Venezuela.
I have found that the PRC sells to the following countries, but does not buy from them.   
   Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, Ecuador, Guyana, Suriname.
I have found that the PRC is not active in some of the smaller economies.
   Trinidad & Tobago, French Guiana.

I have found that Russia has minimal economic impact on South America.
   Russia buys from Ecuador and Paraguay.

I have found that Japan is more active in South America.
   Japan sells to Peru, and Suriname.
   Japan buys from Chile, Peru, and Ecuador.

United States.
I have found that the United States is active in each country.
   Gaps in United States coverage, United States does not buy from Uruguay, Peru, or Paraguay.
   Uruguay, Peru, and Paraguay have moderately-sized GDPs.

I have generated the chart below.


Donna Welles
4,5. 2015.

Source: Wikipedia.

Ecuador Export goods. Petroleum, bananas, cut flowers, shrimp, cacao, coffee, wood, fish.
Paraguay Export goods. Soybeans, feed, cotton, meat, edible oils, electricity, wood, leather.

1 Brazil 1903
2 Argentina 947.6
3 Columbia 640.1
4 Chile 409.3
   Japan Buys Only.
5 Venezuela 402.1
6 Peru 368
   PRC Sells Only.
   Japan Buys and Sells.
7 Ecuador 170
   PRC Sells Only.
   Russia Buys Only.
   Japan Buys Only.
8 Uruguay 55.7
9 Paraguay 54.8
   PRC Sells Only.
   Russia Buys Only.
10 Bolivia 30.6
   PRC Sells Only.
11 Trinidad & Tobago 27.1
   No PRC.
12 Suriname 6.7
   PRC Sells Only.
   Japan Sells Only.
13 Guyana 6.1
   PRC Sells Only.
14 French Guiana 3.5
   No PRC.

Paraguay, Ecuador
Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Suriname

China is NOT:
Trinidad & Tobago, French Guiana.
(Small GDPs)

China is NOT:
Bolivia Exports
Paraguay Exports
Peru Exports
Ecuador Exports
Guyana Exports
Suriname Exports

United States is NOT:
Uruguay Exports
Peru Exports
Paraguay Exports 

Bilateral Trade, Central America. United States, People's Republic of China. 4,5. Welles. 2015.

I have finished for now my research, bilateral trade relationships in Central America.
I have looked at the bilateral trade, the United States and the PRC.
I have found that the United States both buys and sells, to each country.
I have found that the PRC sells to each nation, except Honduras.
I have found that the PRC buys from only Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
Below is the chart I have generated, along with a list of export goods coming from Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
Mexico has oil in the ground, they could conceivably sell this to the PRC moving forward.

Donna Welles
4,5. 2015.

1 Mexico 1287
1 Imports
2 Guatemala 78.4
1 Imports
3 Costa Rica 61.4
2 Export2, Import4.
4 Panama 57
2 Export6, Import2
5 El Salvador 46
1 Imports
6 Nicaragua 19.9
1 Imports
7 Honduras 18.6
8 Belize 1.6
1 Imports

Costa Rica Export Goods
bananas, pineapples, coffee, melons, ornamental plants, sugar; seafood; electronic components, medical equipment
Panama Export Goods
gold, bananas, shrimp, sugar, iron and steel waste, pineapples, watermelon

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Chart: PRC, Rank in terms of Exports, Imports. List by GDP, Descending. 3,5. 2015. Welles.

I have completed for now my research into the bilateral trade status, South African nations.
I learned that Angola has a lopsided trade relationship with the PRC, as they exchange oil, diamonds for electronics, manufactured goods.
I learned that the PRC is the #1 trading partner for 140 countries globally.
So, I wondered the nature of other bilateral trade arrangements in South Africa, the PRC.

Here is the chart I have generated.
It is in descending order, GDP.
Highlighted in purple, countries where neither the PRC, nor the United States are active.
Highlighted in blue, countries where the United States is active.

My conclusions are as follows:
The PRC ranks higher in terms of Export, Import partner, size of GDP. Direct Relationship.
Zimbabwe is something of an anomaly, but I learned that it is much like Angola.
     Zimbabwe exports gold, platinum.
     Zimbabwe imports consumer goods.
     This explains the PRC role in their bilateral trade relationship.
So, both Angola and Zimbabwe enjoy lopsided bilateral trade relationships with the PRC.
So, Angola is not an isolated case.

Another thing I read is that Chinese wealthy are turning toward silver from gold.
Another thing I read is that India is importing the gold, PRC used to import.

Donna Welles. 
3,5. 2015.

Sources: Wikipedia, Foreign Affairs May/June 2015.

Integrated Chart: PRC, Rank in terms of Exports, Imports. List by GDP, Descending.

1 South Africa 350. 1E, 1I.
2 Angola 130. 1E, 1I.
3 Botswana 34
4 Mozambique 26.7. 3E, 2I.
5 Zambia 24.3. 1E, 3I.
6 Namibia 17.8
7 Madagascar 10.1. 2E, 3I.
8 Zimbabwe 7.3. 1E, 2I.
9 Malawi 3.6. 6E, 1I. 

Levers, PRC employs Globally. 3,5. 2015. Welles.

Levers, PRC employs Globally. 3,5. 2015. Welles.

Liquid Capital
Targeted Bilateral Trade Agreements
     140 countries, PRC is number one trading partner.
     Case Study: Angola.
     Angola to PRC, oil and diamonds.
     PRC to Angola, electronics and manufactured goods.
     Are there 140 examples of these lopsided bilateral trade agreements?
     Africa, highways. (effective, organic)
     Nicaragua, canal. (ineffective, inorganic)
Military Might
     PLA, affects Russian Federation & India.
     Seems unlikely PLA will invade either RF or India.
Intelligence Network
     Intelligence Network
     Intelligence Network
Guilt, Century of Humiliation

3,5. 2015.

Welles, Donna E.
Welles, Donna E. 

Notes: ("Europe's Shattered Dream of Order". Kratsev, Leonard.) Welles. 3,5. 2015. Foreign Affairs.

Notes: Europe's Shattered Dream of Order. 
How Putin is Disrupting the Atlantic Alliance. 
Ivan Kratsev and Mark Leonard. 
Foreign Affairs. May, June. 2015.   

China per Ukraine:
"natural adjustment of borders" rather than a challenge to international order.

Turkey, India, Indonesia, Brazil did not go along with the US-Europe sanctions against Russia.  

68% of Italians said "they would outright refuse" to fight for their country. 2014. WIN/Gallup International survey.
29, 27, 18. France, Britain, Germany. [Confusing Poll]  

Role of Azerbaijan.
2010 Parliamentary Elections.  

Problem I have with Article, Logic:   

Says, we must keep sanctions.
If we do not keep sanctions, then we recognize RF in Ukraine.
If we do not keep sanctions, it would be like saying it's fine for the USSR to occupy the Baltic States.

Who are these authors?   

Vienna, Institute for Human Sciences
European Council of Foreign Relations  

3,5. 2015.   

Welles, Donna E. 
Welles, Donna E.